Faith: The most rational strategy in an irrational world?

Remember when we called it polycrisis?The word itself already feels nostalgic. Since then, the world Poly-Unknown. We no longer juggle multiple crises that we can name and measure. We now live in a fog of probability. Wars are endlessly changing, economies are disrupted in unexpected ways, and technology, especially AI, is advancing faster than we can. ethicsour institutions, or our sleep cycles. Uncertainty has become the only certainty.

For those who pay Noteit’s a mental burden. In my conversations with policy analysts and friends from various fields, the underlying theme is always the same. You don’t know what’s going to happen next, and you can’t plan. It’s easy to internalize that volatility. nervous system Until my body felt like ticker tape. But psychology gives us another strategy. A healthy and productive way to live in times of radical uncertainty has surprisingly little to do with predictions and everything to do with predictions. faith.

Not the type that requires theology. The type that requires discipline.

1. Don’t accept uncertainty

The first step is to recognize that uncertainty is not yours but the world’s. It’s not fate, it’s data. But many of us, especially those used to optimizing spreadsheets and strategies, make the mistake of trying to internalize uncertainty, as if by worrying more we can model it better. As a result, emotional infiltration occurs. Instability in the external world becomes instability in our inner world.

In cognitive psychology, this is called Emotion prediction error: The tendency to overestimate the emotional impact of future events. In reality, this means that we are experiencing a disaster that has not yet occurred. Detaching doesn’t mean ignoring. It means acknowledging the limits of control. When the macro noise gets louder, the only rational response is to turn down the emotional volume. Uncertainty is external.

2. Faith works wonders (here’s why)

If that sounds naive, let’s look at the evidence. Decades of psychology and behavioral economics Research shows that expectations and beliefs are not soft variables, but causal variables. Albert Bandura’s works self-efficacy found that people’s beliefs in their ability to succeed were more accurate predictors of actual performance than measured abilities. Tali Shallot’s research optimism bias We show that positive expectations activate reward circuitry and persistence behavior, literally rewiring us. motivation. Hope theory, mindset intervention, and more. placebo The effects on sports performance all point to the same conclusion: faith works.

In this broader sense, having faith means continuing to invest your mental energy in positive outcomes, even when the evidence is imperfect. It’s not a delusion. Confirmation is delayed. Athletes use this to perform beyond fatigue. Entrepreneurs use failure to overcome them. Citizens can use this to maintain civic engagement even when institutions are unstable.

The point is that the benefits of faith are measurable. Optimists tend to live longer, recover faster, and earn more. Economically, optimistic Expectations correlate with high entrepreneurship and investment. Has a psychological buffering effect stress and prevent paralysis. of Harvard University Grant ResearchA study that followed men over 80 years found that sustained optimism and the ability to trust in the future predicted both. career Success and subsequent physical health. Faith changes how the brain processes feedback. Setbacks become information, not verdicts. In times of uncertainty, change is the key to survival.

So cultivate it, not by blind cheerfulness, but by trained attention. Give your mind evidence of progress as well as danger. Record your own small victories. Track competency, not clutter. Faith grows where it is focused.

3. Get involved — the antidote to helplessness.

The paradox of our time is that the megatrends that scare us the most are the ones that have the most far-reaching impact. artificial intelligencebiotechnology—they are not abstract forces. They are human projects and are capable of shaping human forms. Faith without action is fragile. Actions, even small actions, strengthen beliefs.

So let’s learn. Find out how these technologies work in practice. Understand the incentives that drive adoption. Volunteer, build, regulate, and innovate. As a worker, you leverage your expertise to guide new tools toward productive ends. As a citizen, join the conversation about ethics, ownership, and access. Engagement is the twin of acts of faith, each supporting the other. When you help steer the ship, uncertainty becomes less of a drowning experience.

Faith as a productivity tool

Psychologists once thought of faith as an emotional luxury, something we could fall back on when logic failed. However, modern evidence reconstructs it as productivity Tools: Mental technologies for sustaining efforts in uncertain environments. relieve anxietyprotect your focus and continue working even when data is incomplete. This trend is increasing.

In this sense, faith is not the opposite of reason. That’s why it expands over time. That’s what allows rational people to keep building in the midst of ambiguity. The world will continue to be unpredictable. The noise never abates. But in the face of the unknown, the most rational thing to do may be to simply believe, to continue to invest effort and optimism into the future before it is statistically justified.

Because history, like markets and people, rewards those who keep showing up.